The markets began the new year adding to the gains of 2006 with the DJIA racing to a high of 12,786.64, the S&P 500 increasing to 1,459.68 and the NASDAQ reaching 2,524.94 before hitting some headwinds in February. At the close of the first quarter, the DJIA was down 0.9% for the year closing at 12,354.35, while the S&P 500 closed the quarter up 0.2% at 1,420.86 and the NASDAQ finished at 2,421.64 up 0.3% for 2007. While the Dow is still above its high set during the Tech Wreck of 2000, the S&P 500 still has not reached it previous high of 1,527.46, which is a technical feat I feel needs to happen for this bull market to continue. Since the S&P 500 is an index that tracks a broad range of large companies, its march toward the all time record is an indicator of the overall health of the market and the economy.

The headwinds I spoke of earlier came in the form of higher oil prices, Greenspan’s recession remarks and the slumping housing market. Oil prices have been bouncing around between $60 and $67 a barrel, rebounding from just under $60 a barrel in January. The tensions in the Persian Gulf over British sailors being taken hostage by the Iranian Navy (shades of 1979) has been the latest culprit fueling the rise in the price of oil. Their subsequent release has resulted in a moderate decline in oil prices in the opening days of the second quarter, and the DJIA regaining much of its first quarter loss.

Greenspan’s speech placing the odds of recession in 2007 at 25% stopped the market’s advance in its tracks in February. While it should really come as no surprise that the possibility of a recession exists, especially since we are in the mature phase of the current expansion, know as prosperity. There are many factors which could tip the economy into negative growth and end this current expansion, but that is just the nature of the economic cycle. For the foreseeable future, it looks as if interest rates will remain on hold and growth will continue to ease from the pace of 2006.

One of the biggest drags on the economy of late is the continued slump in the housing market exacerbated by the concern that the meltdown in the sub prime mortgage market will spill over into the prime market. While defaults by borrowers are increasing, which in turn has caused bankruptcies by lenders, the real concern is how the sub prime debacle will effect the many derivative investments which have been securitized from these sub prime loans. Mortgages in many cases are not held by the companies that write them, but are bundled into securities and sold to investors to spread the risk. As the value of these assets declines, banks, hedge funds and private equity firms head for the exits. This unwinding of positions always leaves someone “holding the bag”. I hope the risk management tools used in the collateralized mortgage obligation market are better than the risk management tools used by Amaranth Advisors in assessing the risk of the natural gas markets in September 2006!

Just to add a touch of irony to the current rage of private equity ventures taking public companies private, the granddaddy of private equity firms, Blackstone Group, has filed its plans to go public. Blackstone has been highly successful and according to Mike Santoli of Barrons, ” Blackstone will have little problem achieving a $40 billion market cap”, and no doubt, “it will become a core holding in an alternate asset management sector.” The stock will “open with a big pop-which means it immediately will be unattractively valued. The idea of having access to permanent capital rather than dialing up pension funds for every cent Blackstone invests makes some sense. In other words, you can respect the logic of the deal without buying the stock.”

About the Author:

John Kaighn is a Registered Investment Advisor with Jersey Benefits Advisors and writes articles on various business and investment information, ideas and opportunities. For more information about this and other topics you can visit

http://www.jerseybenefits.com
and

http://www.johnkaighn.com

Article Source: ArticlesBase.com – First Quarter Update

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WHITMAN No. 9040 WASHINGTON HEAD QUARTER Start 1960 #3 $10.99

1908 INDIAN HEAD QUARTER EAGLE GOLD $2.5 AU55 ANACS $315.00

20 Silver Barber Quarters Liberty Head Quarter Lot #D40 $99.99

1909-D BARBER HEAD QUARTER IN VERYGOOD COIN $6.75

1917 Standing Lib Quarter NGC MS-66 Full Head PQ! $1,975.00

1900 S & 1905 O BARBER HEAD QUARTERS Set of 2 $12.50

1913 $2.50 INDIAN HEAD QUARTER EAGLE GOLD COIN MS62 NGC $364.00

2004 P WISCONSIN QUARTER BU BANK ROLL Heads Tails $12.62

2004 D WISCONSIN QUARTER BU BANK ROLL Heads Tails $13.00

2002 D ROLL TENNESSEE UNSEARCHED UNC QUARTER Heads Tail $23.38

2002 P ROLL TENNESSEE UNSEARCHED UNC QUARTER Heads Tail $22.27

2002 Indiana P State Quarters Roll UNC Heads Tails $9.99

1834 Classic Head Quarter Eagle No Motto ANACS AU50 Det $416.00

2000 D SOUTH CAROLINA QUARTER BU BANK ROLL Head Tails $9.99

1928 Quarter Eagle $2.50 Indian Head gold coin $1,200.00

1912 $2 1/2 Indian Head Gold Coin Quarter Eagle WOW!! $224.72

1906 GENUINE GOLD 2.50 LIBERTY HEAD QUARTER EAGLE RING $595.00

~1913 $2.50 INDIAN HEAD GOLD QUARTER EAGLE COIN ~ AU+ $229.50

NGC MS62 Type I Full Head 1917 Standing Liberty Quarter $222.50

~HEAD/TAIL~ 2009-D Mint VIRGIN ISLANDS Unc Roll Quarter $17.99

HEAD/TAIL 2009-D MINT PUERTO RICO UNCIRC QUARTER ROLL $20.99

~HEAD/TAIL~ 2006-D Mint NORTH DAKOTA Unc Roll Quarter $17.99

1928 $2 1/2 Indian Head Gold Coin Quarter Eagle BU MS!? $207.50

1917 D NGC MS 61 Full Head Liberty Standing Quarter $280.00

1914-D indian head quarter eagle $2.50 dollar gold coin $170.50

1914-D $2.5 INDIAN HEAD GOLD QUARTER EAGLE COIN ~ BU MS $305.00

1915 $2 1/2 Indian Head Gold Coin Quarter Eagle BU MS!? $226.50

~1927 $2.50 INDIAN HEAD GOLD QUARTER EAGLE COIN ~ BU MS $283.99

~1908 $2.50 INDIAN HEAD GOLD QUARTER EAGLE COIN ~ BU MS $202.50

1913 $2.5 INDIAN HEAD GOLD QUARTER EAGLE 1 DAY SALE! $131.05

1953 Washington Head Quarter, Silver $0.99

LIBERTY HEAD or BARBER QUARTER COLLECTION 1892-1916 d. $249.99

1913 INDIAN HEAD GOLD QUARTER EAGLE $2.5 AU58 ANACS $330.00

TEN EARLY DATE SILVER WASHINGTON HEAD QUARTERS - 1952 $27.51

1905 Barber (Liberty Head) Quarter $10.95

1899 BARBER OR LIBERTY HEAD QUARTER $5.99

U.S. 1901 P LIBERTY BARBER HEAD QUARTER DOLLAR F detail $9.99

1895 BARBER OR LIBERTY HEAD QUARTER $6.99

1896 BARBER OR LIBERTY HEAD QUARTER $6.99

USA coin BARBER HEAD QUARTER 1914. mint mark D $16.00

1905 S- Barber/Liberty Head Silver Quarter $4.49

1904 $2 1/2 Gold Liberty Head Quarter Eagle PCGS AU 55 $219.50

1837 $2.50 Classic Head Quarter Eagle Coin Replica $7.95

20 Silver Liberty Head Barber Quarters Coins Lot #E80 $51.00

1934-P WASHINGTON HEAD 90% SILVER QUARTER-DOLLAR NICE!! $0.99

40 BARBER / LIBERTY HEAD QUARTERS BID NOW GREAT ROLL ! $115.50

1900-S BARBER HEAD SILVER QUARTER RARE OLDER COIN NICE! $2.76

1953-D WASHINGTON HEAD SILVER QUARTER VERY NICE COIN.!! $2.28

1892 T I REV Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $3.08

1892 O Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $0.99

1892 S Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $12.01

1893 Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $4.76

1893 O Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $12.59

1893 S Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $9.60

1835 .. $2.50 Gold Classic Head Quarter Eagle .. Rare ! $3,995.00

1894 Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $0.99

1894 O Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $3.25

1908-O BARBER HEAD 90% SILVER QUARTER NICE OLD COIN.!!! $4.32

1894 S Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $3.37

1915 $2.50 Gold Indian Head Quarter Eagle PCGS XF-45 $108.82

1895 Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $3.75

1895 O Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $5.50

1895 S Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $0.99

1907 $2.50 Gold Liberty Head Quarter Eagle PCGS Genuine $103.82

1896 Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $3.75

1896 O Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $11.51

1897 Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $1.25

1897 O Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $8.50

1897 S Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $27.00

1898 Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $0.99

1898 O Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $5.50

1898 S Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $4.51

1899 Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $3.80

1899 O Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $3.99

1899 S Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $10.51

1900 Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $3.80

1900 O Barber Head Quarter A FINE Coin $10.50

1900 S Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $4.13

1901 Barber Head Quarter A FINE Coin $4.50

1901 O Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $8.51

1902 Barber Head Quarter A FINE Coin $4.50

1902 O Barber Head Quarter A VERY FINE Coin $4.75

1902 S Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $7.00

1903 Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $3.75

1903 O Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $3.78

1910 $2.5 INDIAN HEAD GOLD QUARTER EAGLE RARE BU MS $98.00

1903 S Barber Head Quarter A FINE Coin $26.62

1904 Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $2.25

1904 O Barber Head Quarter A FINE Coin $17.01

1905 Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $4.03

1905 O Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $2.25

1905 S Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $2.25

1914 Indian Head Quarter Eagle NGC AU58 - Old Holder! $349.00

1906 Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $2.25

1906 D Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $2.25

1906 O Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $5.55

1907 Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $2.25

1907 D Barber Head Quarter A VERY GOOD Coin $4.50

1907 O Barber Head Quarter A GOOD Coin $2.25

1908 indian head quarter eagle $2.50 dollar gold coin $117.50

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